There He Goes Again
President Bush delivered a spot-on, bang-up speech promoting tax cuts and economic growth today, following his strong news conference last Friday. One key line: “The Democrats are consistent, they are consistently pessimistic.”
The president is cooking.
He’s hot.
He’s framing the debate.
The Democrats want to raise your taxes (by letting them expire). Republicans want to cut them. The Democrats want to take your money for more government spending. Republicans want to let you keep more of what you earn.
Bush was positive, optimistic, and confident.
He blasted corrupt budget earmarks along with overspending in general. He drew a line in the sand for the emergency supplemental budget bill. He threatened to veto.
The GOP is getting close to their tax-cut plan to extend the investor tax cuts on dividends and cap gains and relieving the AMT tax burden.
Bush is on the offensive.
He is making the case for tax-cut driven growth. He is providing the pro-growth political backdrop for the November elections.
He is appealing to the Investor Class and to small business owner operators. He is underscoring his ownership society theme.
And here’s the really interesting part of this story. While Mainstream Wall Street economists and the Fed continue to expect an economic slowdown (as they have for the last three years), the reality is the economy may actually be picking up speed.
Check out today’s factory orders report for March, where backlogs are up 13.5 percent at an annual rate over the past three months, and orders for high-tech are up 73.7 percent annually for the last three months.
These are unbelievable numbers. The ISM non-manufacturing index was significantly stronger than expected.
Let me summarize: Conventional wisdom Demand-Siders continue to “misunderestimate” the economic growth incentive power of lower marginal tax rates. Especially reduced rates on capital, which is the seed-corn for new businesses, new jobs and higher incomes. Easy capital, with higher investment returns after tax, are driving this economic boom.
It is the greatest story never told.
But now the President is telling it.
The president is cooking.
He’s hot.
He’s framing the debate.
The Democrats want to raise your taxes (by letting them expire). Republicans want to cut them. The Democrats want to take your money for more government spending. Republicans want to let you keep more of what you earn.
Bush was positive, optimistic, and confident.
He blasted corrupt budget earmarks along with overspending in general. He drew a line in the sand for the emergency supplemental budget bill. He threatened to veto.
The GOP is getting close to their tax-cut plan to extend the investor tax cuts on dividends and cap gains and relieving the AMT tax burden.
Bush is on the offensive.
He is making the case for tax-cut driven growth. He is providing the pro-growth political backdrop for the November elections.
He is appealing to the Investor Class and to small business owner operators. He is underscoring his ownership society theme.
And here’s the really interesting part of this story. While Mainstream Wall Street economists and the Fed continue to expect an economic slowdown (as they have for the last three years), the reality is the economy may actually be picking up speed.
Check out today’s factory orders report for March, where backlogs are up 13.5 percent at an annual rate over the past three months, and orders for high-tech are up 73.7 percent annually for the last three months.
These are unbelievable numbers. The ISM non-manufacturing index was significantly stronger than expected.
Let me summarize: Conventional wisdom Demand-Siders continue to “misunderestimate” the economic growth incentive power of lower marginal tax rates. Especially reduced rates on capital, which is the seed-corn for new businesses, new jobs and higher incomes. Easy capital, with higher investment returns after tax, are driving this economic boom.
It is the greatest story never told.
But now the President is telling it.
posted by Money Politic$ at 12:41 PM
41 Comments:
He's telling it this week, at least. I suspect he'll neglect to keep driving it next week, or the week after, with anything approaching the consistency he needs to get the message out. (But maybe Tony Snow will have a bigger impact than I give him credit for, and will wrangle the Administration into a press-saavy organization. Here's hoping!)
When you have him, ask him about the immigration issue as perceived through the eyes of legal immigrants. These are some of the most outspoken opponents to unfettered amnesty declarations, and these are generally strong America Bush types.
Equal protection implies equal enforcement, and this is a constituency that sees an across-the-board amnesty policy as an arbitrary and capricious enforcement of the law.
The staggered, staged approach put forth by some is an improvement, but he lost some of his flock when he seemed willing to open up the border, thereby only punishing those who lawfully wait their turn.
Also, ask him if Tony Snow will have a seat at the policy table. That could only enhance things.
Double-Second that part about Tony Snow.
"Accompany" some "Troops" to the BORDER!
Use it as a photo-op to make a speech about "Action" to allow far more "Legal" immigration, THIS YEAR. Kick the Bureaucracy "in the ass." Get it moving. This is where you messed up in Katrina. TAKE CHARGE!
He blasted corrupt budget earmarks along with overspending in general.
Yet has never his veto to control it.
He drew a line in the sand for the emergency supplemental budget bill. He threatened to veto.
Didn't he draw a line in the sand concerning the budget, and then let the cost go over his line? Isn't he the guy who refuses to put any portion of the Iraq and Afghanistan costs into the budget?
And his veto threats will be viewed as hollow by all but his 33% until he actually does it.
The GOP is getting close to their tax-cut plan to extend the investor tax cuts on dividends and cap gains and relieving the AMT tax burden.
Yet they do almost nothing to control the deficit. And hasn't Bush called for AMT changes while simultaneously refusing to put the impact of these changes into his budget projections?
Cute little speeches and photo ops aren't working anymore. Bush is being judged on his actions and outcomes. When the economy does well without the requirement of vast deficit stimulus, he can take a bow. Until then, the emperor has no clothes.
I'll agree with the first three posts, but he should accompany the new border guards that are graduating rather than troops. I want to see the budget and staff increased for the legal system.
It's good he is still pushing for permanent tax cuts even if the wimpy members of congress are trying for an extension.
Don't forget Sarbanes is at it again while you are in Washington. I hope Shelby-Sarbanes gets lost before the politicians take over CFIUS and make protectionism easier and free trade impossible.
I want to see the budget and staff increased for the legal system.
And I want to see the border guards armed (and trained) with more than just a 9mm pistol. The drug smugglers that they will necessarily run across are much more heavily armed. The border guards need better firepower.
I just saw my first border guard on a little 4-wheel ATV. These things look great for patrol and pursuit.
Letter making the rounds on the blogs:
Dear Senator Frist: There is a huge amount of propaganda and myths circulating about illegal aliens, particularly illegal Mexican, Salvadorian, Guatemalan and Honduran aliens.
http://www.the-two-malcontents.com/2006/05/01/stoddard-1-frist-0/
Bush and the leadership in Congress continue to leave themselves open to class warfare arguments. Even if you approve of tax cut extensions, how do you justify the fact that the proposed bill extends the patch on the AMT for only one year but extends cap gains and dividend cuts for two years?
Even if you approve of tax cut extensions, how do you justify the fact that the proposed bill extends the patch on the AMT for only one year but extends cap gains and dividend cuts for two years?
What I want to know is why they don't just suck it up and set the AMT limit to automatically adjust by inflation?
LFC, it could be that Congress wants to hang onto it's hard-earned reputation for fiscal responsibility.
This is what this administration and Congressional leadership calls "making the hard choices." When you are the "Decider" you have to "determine what is right" and to set priorities.
Ahem, excuse me folks; Does anyone remember some fool on this site predicting a $ 270 Billion Deficit for 06'? As opposed to a $ 430 Billion shortfall?
BUSINESSWEEK is reporting that the incredibly strong dailey data from April is pointing to a $ 95 - $ 100 Billion Surplus for April.
This puts us on track for a ....wait for it .....$270 Billion 06' Deficit. AHHhhh
p.s. April Revenues were up 15%. FIFTEEN "FREAKIN" PERCENT!
Good call, Rufus.
I see Spain and Canada have joined China in the deal to drill off Cuba. We better drill so our rigs can block the view of our bases on the FL gulf that Nelson/Martinez and everyone worry so much about.
Excellent news Rufus. You are looking great on the prognostications so far big guy. Congrats and keep it up. Also, the April growth rate was dynamite.
Not quite sure though. Were you making another point or just spreading the good news?
I think instead of passing new energy legislation, they should go through and repeal many of the old laws that stifle exploration and production.
Just "Braggin"
Deservedly so, Ruf.
this is such a must read Ill post the full text here:
Debunking One of the Worst Ideas in Economics
by Charles Wheelan, Ph.D.
In this column, I'm focusing on bad economics. In fact, I'm going to write about what I consider to be the two worst economic ideas -- or at least ideas that pass as economics, though both have been thoroughly repudiated by nearly all credible thinkers.
When I say worst, I don't mean the most outlandish (e.g. stock prices are controlled by aliens) because those ideas usually collapse of their own weight. Rather, the most pernicious bad ideas in economics are those that have a ring of truth. They're hard to debunk because they have a certain intuitive appeal. As a result, they stick around, providing bogus intellectual cover for bad policy, year after year, decade after decade.
For the sake of political balance, I'll skewer a favorite of the right in this column, and then a favorite of the left in my next piece.
The Laffer Curve
Economist Arthur Laffer made a very interesting supposition: If tax rates are high enough, then cutting taxes might actually generate more revenue for the government, or at least pay for themselves. (In one of life's great coincidences, he first sketched a graph of this idea on Dick Cheney's cocktail napkin.) If the government cuts taxes, then Uncle Sam gets a smaller cut of all economic activity -- but reducing taxes also generates new economic activity. Laffer reasoned that, under some circumstances, a tax cut would stimulate so much new economic activity that the government would end up with more in its coffers -- by taking a smaller slice of a much larger pie.
In fairness to Mr. Laffer, there's nothing wrong with this theory. It's almost certainly true at very high rates of taxation. If you consider the extreme, say a 99 percent marginal tax rate, then the government will probably not be collecting a lot of revenue. To begin with, citizens are going to hide as much income as possible. (The more honest ones will turn to barter and avoid the tax system entirely.) And no one is going to rush out and take a second job or build a factory if they get to keep only $1 of every $100 that they earn.
So it's entirely plausible that slashing tax rates from 99 percent to 30 percent could increase government tax revenues. It would deflate the black market and provide a huge new incentive to work and invest.
No Big Jolt for the U.S.
But here's the problem when we take Laffer's theory and try to apply it in the U.S.: We don't have a 99 percent marginal tax rate. Or 70 percent. Or even 50 percent. We start with low marginal tax rates relative to the rest of the developed world. (Yes, I understand that it may not feel that way after the check you wrote last month.)
So cutting the tax rate from 36 percent to 33 percent is not going to give you the same kind of economic jolt as slashing a tax rate from 90 percent to 50 percent. There's no huge black market to be shut down, no big supply of skilled workers to be lured back into the labor market, and so on.
Will it generate new economic activity? Probably. And that will generate some incremental tax revenue for the government. But remember, it also means that the government will be taking a smaller cut of all the economic activity that we already have.
Think about a simple numerical example: Assume you've got a $10 trillion economy and an average tax rate of 30 percent. So the government takes $3 trillion.
Let's cut the average tax rate to 25 percent and, for the sake of example, assume that it generates $1 trillion in new economic growth (a Herculean assumption, by the way). So now, what does Uncle Sam get? One quarter of $11 trillion is only $2.75 trillion. The economy grows, government revenues shrink.
That's basically what happened with the large Reagan and George W. Bush tax cuts, both of which were followed by large budget deficits. Yes, spending has a lot to do with that, but the bottom line is unequivocal: In both cases, government revenue was lower than it would have been without the tax cuts.
Can't Lose Weight by Eating More
Neither the Reagan nor the George W. Bush tax cuts were "self-financing," as the Laffer disciples like to argue. According to The Economist -- my former employer and no bastion of left-wing thought -- the current Bush Administration's top economist, Gregory Mankiw, estimated that decreasing taxes on labor would generate enough growth to recoup only about 17 cents for each lost dollar; a tax cut on capital is better, paying for more than half of itself. Still, the bottom line from the Bush Administration itself is that tax cuts reduce Uncle Sam's take.
So why does Laffer's sketch on Dick Cheney's cocktail napkin rank near the top of my list of bad economic ideas? Because, when applied to the U.S., it's intellectually dishonest. The Laffer Curve offers the false promise that we can cut taxes without making any sacrifice on the spending side, and that's simply not true. It's the economic equivalent of arguing that you can lose weight by eating more.
Let me be perfectly clear: I'm not arguing that tax cuts are bad. I'm simply pointing out that we can't pretend that tax cuts won't require reductions on the spending side to balance the budget. In fact, you can disregard every other argument in this column and think about one thing: If Laffer were right, lower taxes would never require any spending sacrifice. We could pay a mere one percent of our income in taxes and still fund all of our government spending -- and maybe more! Do you think that's really possible?
This column should give you a hint of why economics is called the dismal science -- it's all about tradeoffs. We're the ones telling you that if you get more of something, you probably have to get less of something else.
Whether it's tax policy or dieting, you can't have your cake and lose weight, too, which is why America currently has huge deficits and a lot of fat people.
But, you know, you would think that an Energy "Reporter" would go over to the EIA WEBSITE every now and then, and check out the "Demand" statistics. As I've been stating on this site for 4 wks they have been steadily dropping.
And, since they dropped from 0.8 to 0.3 last week, AND, SINCE THEY ARE A FOUR WEEK MOVING AVERAGE, last weeks demand almost had to be negative. AND, this weeks demand was "absolutely" negative, year over year.
By the way, Diesel has been negative yoy for a couple of months, although, "it" is coming back.
Looked at railroads last week and O&G E&P has it future retirees.
Survey results indicate the largest areas of need over the next five years are in the fields of Engineering and Geosciences, with hiring needs reaching as high as 38 percent of the current workforce. Hiring needs over that same time period for Operations, Maintenance and Instrumentation / Electrical were found to be 28 percent of the current workforce.
Americal Petroleum
Rufus, what reporter?
Sanchez, what a lot of people, including Mankieu, don't take into account is the difference of "Compounding." They tend to look at the first couple of years, out.
Take a large number, compound it at 4% vs 2%. At a point 33% of the larger number will be larger than 36% of the smaller number.
From that point on it's all "Gravy."
Actually, I guess I should have used 3.5% (our growth rate) vs 1.5% (Europe's growth rate.)
Melissa Francis was "Shocked, Shocked" that demand growth for gasoline had gone from + 1.5% (which it hadn't been for a couple of weeks) to Flat (which really means it was negative last week.)
Mankieu is smarter than you. If he doesnt compund its on purpose. What nonsense are you talking about?
if you take 2% of 50 thousand you get a lower number than 4% of 100K over 10 years if YOU COMPOUND that you do a lot better with the 4% than the 2% . The relevance of this example is zero but i thought I would use it to counter Mankieu
rufus said...
Sanchez, what a lot of people including Mankiew, is the difference of "Compounding." They tend to look at the first couple of yeras out.
I have to agree with Sanchez here Rufus. I agree tax cuts just like government spending can add a short-term boost to the market, although I would argue that some tax cuts are more effective in providing that stimulus than others (another conversation). However, in the long run, there is no free lunch.
Tax cuts don't pay for themselves.
With regard to compounding, I could buy you argument if tax cuts produced growth sufficient to generate revenues enough to offset the losses from the tax cuts themselves. However, other than you and Larry and GWB, I don't think there are a lot of people that believe that.
Assuming tax cuts give you stimulus and revenue growth equal to 20% of every $1 you lose due to the cuts (long-term), that still leaves the other 80% that can't be used for deficit reduction. Therefore, whatever deficit growth results from implementing the tax cuts also grows because of compounding.
Bush's policies, both at home and abroad are a disaster. We are mortgaging economic growth in ways never before conceived of. I love low taxes, but I hate massive government spending (and massive government period) even more. Some food for thought -- see the following excerpt from a recent Rolling Stone's article (yes, the article supports the notion that Bush is perhaps the worst president in US history, but that doesn't change the relevance of this factual snippet):
"According to the Treasury Department, the forty-two presidents who held office between 1789 and 2000 borrowed a combined total of $1.01 trillion from foreign governments and financial institutions. But between 2001 and 2005 alone, the Bush White House borrowed $1.05 trillion, more than all of the previous presidencies combined. Having inherited the largest federal surplus in American history in 2001, he has turned it into the largest deficit ever -- with an even higher deficit, $423 billion, forecast for fiscal year 2006. Yet Bush -- sounding much like Herbert Hoover in 1930 predicting that "prosperity is just around the corner" -- insists that he will cut federal deficits in half by 2009, and that the best way to guarantee this would be to make permanent his tax cuts, which helped cause the deficit in the first place."
ka-"boom"
Quirk said ...
With regard to compounding, I could buy you argument if tax cuts produced growth sufficient to generate revenues enough to offset the losses from the tax cuts themselves. However, other than you and Larry and GWB, I don't think there are a lot of people that believe that.
quirk -- you are right on .Trying to counter other peoples arguments w/ broad statements w/ little if any factual basis is troubling
http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060417/SCANNERS/60417001
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