Tonight's Lineup
On CNBC’s “Kudlow & Company” tonight:
The Wall Street Journal’s Steve Moore and former Clinton Labor Secretary/ UCB professor Robert Reich and will join us in their always spirited political/economic debate.
Tonight’s focus will be upon the U.S. economic boom, windfall profit tax on oil, and President Bush’s speech earlier today.
We will also have a jam-packed economic/markets discussion with an all-star panel.
Our guests include Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist for First Trust Advisors; Mike Holland, Money-Manager and Chairman of Holland & Company; author/nationally syndicated columnist Joel Mowbray; former Treasury undersecretary Gary Gensler; and Stefan Abrams, Chief Investment Officer at Trust Company of the West.
TONIGHT’S POLL QUESTION:
Should the government mandate CAFÉ fuel standards?
Cast your vote at www.kudlowcnbc.com.
The Wall Street Journal’s Steve Moore and former Clinton Labor Secretary/ UCB professor Robert Reich and will join us in their always spirited political/economic debate.
Tonight’s focus will be upon the U.S. economic boom, windfall profit tax on oil, and President Bush’s speech earlier today.
We will also have a jam-packed economic/markets discussion with an all-star panel.
Our guests include Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist for First Trust Advisors; Mike Holland, Money-Manager and Chairman of Holland & Company; author/nationally syndicated columnist Joel Mowbray; former Treasury undersecretary Gary Gensler; and Stefan Abrams, Chief Investment Officer at Trust Company of the West.
TONIGHT’S POLL QUESTION:
Should the government mandate CAFÉ fuel standards?
Cast your vote at www.kudlowcnbc.com.
posted by Money Politic$ at 3:34 PM
73 Comments:
I'm glad Mr. Holland and Mr. Abrams still base their investment ideas on the current and projected performance of the companies and the prevailing trends in the world.
Mr. Holland and Mr. Abrams
---
You know somebody is faking when they address people with a Mr.
That is as fake a compliment as I have ever seen.
I believe you also respect Mr. Kudlow, Mr. Bush and Mr. Right wing nut case.
Saab has solved the fuel mileage (low compression) problem, and their Bio-Power model is wildly popular in Sweden. Unfortunately, engines using this technology put out so much HP that new transmissions have to be designed, and built, to handle the extra stress. The unit they're selling in Europe, right now, has a manual transmission, which is acceptable in Europe, but would "Greatly" reduce sales in the U.S. They're building a new automatic transmission as we Blog.
Blogger is driving me crazy.
With the current flex-fuel technology, E-85 needs to sell at about a 25% discount to unleaded. E-85, as a result of the shortage caused by the newly enacted mandates is selling for about a 4.0% discount. That's not enough to bring increased demand. Because of this, gas stations are installing new E-85 pumps at a slower pace.
This situation will be ameliorated later in the year as more ethanol refineries come on line, and ethanol reverts to it's more traditional twenty-five percent discount.
The reason this is important is that auto companies won't spend the money for the new Saab/type technology (new transmissions) until there are more E-85 pumps.
Ethanol will "struggle" for another year, or two, but; these issues will work themselves out. We will have a choice of High-Performance, fuel efficient ethanol vehicles (some of them hybrids) in the intermediate future.
You see, in a couple of years we'll have about three hundred Independent ethanol refineris pumping out about 15 Billion gallons/year, in the U.S. alone.
They will be producing this ethanol for a cost of about $1.00/gal, or less. The pumps will materialize, with Bush pushing for federal tax credits for their installation, and the auto companies will eventually be forced to get on board.
BTW, if ethanol is to blame for the price run-up in gasoline,
WHY IS "DIESEL" SELLING FOR $2.90/GAL?
rufus, I agree, it can't be ethanol. But it is more convenient to blame ethanol. Everybody has their own agenda.
crude makes up 55% of the cost of gasoline, refinery 22%, tax 19%, and 4% for the rest. The driver is clearly crude.
Everything is higher when refineries are running at 88% capacity. That is up from 86+%. Diesel has it own conversion to low sulfur, but I don't remember the date. It is soon. More gasoline imports were received last week, but diesel is consumed in Europe, and there are very few imports of diesel. If the refineries are down, there is just less. Diesel stayed higher longer after Katrina. State taxes in FL are twice the amount on diesel as for gasoline.
You know somebody is faking when they address people with a Mr.---
KTS, I typed last names only, and it seemed disrespectful. The comment was not faking. They did not say maybe this is too high or that is too low or, or. They knew what sectors they liked and why.
I see where Vincente Fox is expected to sign off on a bill that will decriminalize possession by Mexican consumers of drugs (including LSD, marijuana, MDA, ecstasy, heroin, cocaine, and amphetimines among others)in allowable quantities.
It will be interesting to see what Chertoff and Julie Myers have to say about this one.
My guess is, "Violent crime will go down, and addiction will go up by exactly 0.0%.
and tourism to Mexico will increase, substantially. Tomorrow
Should CAFE targets be increased?
In which alternative universe can the conservation of a commodity be INCREASED by making it cheaper to use?
Unintended consequences: people move further from work, choose mass transit less, end up driving cars more, and some even opt for guzzlers because econo-boxes don't give them what they want. Result? CAFE prolongs relationship with OPEC, retards move to renewable fuels.
The switch to ethanol is probably a good thing, although ethanol can be used even more efficiently if it is first converted to hydrogen.
As for Kudlow's question, increasing CAFE standards is probably a bad idea. The long-term effect of that is to shift costs/mile from variable costs (for the gasoline) into fixed costs (for the car). This has two bad effects.
The first bad effect is that the consumption of gasoline actually increases. The demand for gasoline is elastic (in the long run) which means that when the price goes down, consumption goes up enough that total spending actually increases.
Since gasoline use dominates the marginal costs per mile, then reducing cost per mile by increasing MPG will increase the total money spent on miles, and thus the total money spent on gasoline, and thus the total amount of gasoline.
You can see this principle in action as the existing CAFE standards have increased highway congestion, encouraged driving over public transportation, encouraged longer driving commutes, etc.
If we really want to curb gasoline use, the Europeans have a better idea, which is to artificially raise the price of gasoline.
The second bad effect of shifting the costs of driving from the cost of gasoline into the cost of cars is that it then takes a big price move in gasoline to make people change their driving habits. So if the supply/demand shifts so that people need to cut back on gasoline use by a little bit, it takes a big spike in gasoline prices to do that.
ExxonMobil reports it has made the switch to ethanol without problems. There may be an odd station still cleaning tanks, but as far as it is concerned, it is converted. The easing of standards by the President will do nothing but allow more imports. There is no going back.
ExxonMobil paid a combined tax rate of 47% for q1 and expects 40% to 45% for the year. It will be around 45% next q. That seems enough taxes for any corporation to pay.
A really superb Op-Ed by Tim Roemer in the New York Times today (Saturday, 29 April 2006) entitled 'Enough Already,' suggested that all the Democrats need to win in 2006 and 2008 is the simple slogan, 'Had Enough? Vote Democratic!'
If we have never had it so good, then why Americans are not happy?
Sharp said...
ExxonMobil paid a combined tax rate of 47% for q1 and expects 40% to 45% for the year. It will be around 45% next q. That seems enough taxes for any corporation to pay.
Sharp, I'm not jumping on the oil companies or saying there is any justification fo any kind of windfall profits tax. However, I question the actual tax rate of these companies given the taxes they pay are only on reported net earnings and don't take into account all the tax breaks they get like depletion allowances, etc.
I also believe this talk about investigating market manipulation on oil is rediculous. They've done it about 30 times before and found nothing. However, there have been a number of articles lately suggesting that if the government wants to investigate something, it should be looking at the current shortages of natural gas given the positive statements on supply by some of these same oil company executives only a few years ago.
rufus said...
My guess is, "Violent crime will go down, and addiction will go up by exactly 0.0%.
But in which country, Rufus? Mexico or the US?
Does this story remind anyone else of the 'bread and circuses' approach to public relations used by Nero and Caligula?
It reminds me of, "the end of prohibition" in the good old U.S. in the early 30's.
Q, I won't claim to understand the tax code for any business. I remember years ago when Exxon brought its tax return into Washington for a show, and it was about six feet tall. I'll look at the dollar amount.
On natural gas, there is not a current shortage after the warm winter. It is the future which is a problem since there are twice as many drilling rigs in use to keep the volumes flat. The easy fields that yielded huge stores have been done, and the remaining are harder, more expensive to drill, and yield less ng per well.
Some people have estimated that as many as 50% of those in the Texas Penal System are there as a result of something as minor as "Simple Possession."
Venezuela had to by $2 Billion worth of oil from Russia to meet it's obligations.
70% of the oil production, world-wide, is by state-owned oil companies. Many of these are "DESTROYING" their oil fields through bad management.
Boone Pickens is an oil man, and of course, is always talking his book; but, he says the world will never get above current production levels.
If he's right, we're in for a long 10 years. I think Bush thinks he's right. That's why he is pushing atlernatives so strongly.
I agree Bush is right. The government should not interfer in what alternatives.
Chavez fired everyone who knew anything and put his friends in the jobs. It will be like other countries who have nationalized and chased us out, the expertise the West left behind will exist and no upgrades for decades.
I wondered if something happened with the Saudis and Bush. They seem to make a few trips to Russia and China lately. There have been a few agreements, and I have seen no one visit here.
The field Exxon was allowed in in Abu Dhabi should help in a few years. It is one of the largest in the world, and they are estimating an increase in production or 50% after they upgrade the operations. It will be 750,000 brl/day and will be long term.
rufus said...
If he's right, we're in for a long 10 years. I think Bush thinks he's right. That's why he is pushing atlernatives so strongly.
I think he needs to push harder for technologies like nuclear and ways to dispose of spent fuel. I know little or nothing about bio-mass, but when I see the amounts of land that would have to be used (worldwide) to create enough of this type of fuel to effect the pending energy crisis to any extent other than to remove some marginal pressure, I am skeptical.
I worry about unexpected consequencies. Especially, when I see Indonesia is talking about replacing millions of acres of rain forest with palm trees. If the market is allowed to work freely, do we ever get to the point where we are making a choice between adequate fuel or adequate food? We are not talking about insignificant amounts. Bush wants to replace 25% of our oil usage with alternative fuel in 19 years.
If bio-mass is a significant percentage of that move how would production be effected by drought or crop desease?
Sharp...
I don't argue with what you have said about current and projected ng supplies. My point is that only a few years ago these same oil company executives were saying we had plenty of ng to last at least 65 years, that it would be abundant and cheap. This was when they were trying to get homeowners and utilities to switch over to ng from other fuel sources.
Now a couple years later when there has been a huge shift to natural gas, we get a different story. Where the projections back then stupid or just self serving?
All good points, Q. It is worrisome when you contemplate Brazil and Indonesia cutting down Rain Forests. We'll just have to see how that plays out.
As far as Bush's goal of replacing 25% of transportation fuels with Bio, that should be, in the famous words of George Tenant, a "Slam Dunk." We can produce massively more ethanol than many people believe.
Once one quits thinking about corn "kernels" from Iowa, and starts thinking "cellulogic" material in the U.S. it becomes a whole new ball game. Also, if G.E. is correct, and the cost of desalinization drops 90% over the next decade, the entirety of the U.S. and Mexico becomes a vast ethanol factory. As does very large parts of Africa and Australia.
Talking about paradigm-changers; this might be more interesting than ethanol.
Cities across America are starting to figure out that they can produce up to 50% of their electricy by capturing the methane gas produced by their own "Garbage Dumps." That is a "Huge" number.
Also; the convergence of nano-technology and "Solar" is a huge story. It's getting there, right now.
Add to all this: energy saving appliances, lights, etc, and plug-in hybrids with greatly improved batteries, and you're starting to get a glimpse of the future that Exxon and Duke energy doesn't like.
Q, I must have been investing in tech and ignoring the ng back then. Which companies were pushing the ng? I'll look back. The independent power companies went overboard, but they were great investments at for a while. They have already been investigated.
Duke will be in nuclear power, and it will take all forms for decades. Coal and natural gas will still be around. Exxon is global, and I doubt that it goes under for a long time unless congress helps. They are corporations and the people that run them don't own them. They can just find other jobs. The shareholders will take the hit. Hard to find a bad guy to hate in this since they are all equal lobbyists.
Sharp, I agree, completely. Exxon and Duke a really great at what they do, and we'll be needing them for a long time to come. AND, they are going to be enormously profitable for years and years.
BUT, it's good that we are coming up with some additional ways of producing energy. The world population is growing, and we're going to have to play smarter and smarter.
Cafe Hayek (link on the blogroll) has some really interesting numbers on this:
"Fuel for thought" It's right below the brief on JK Galbreath
On second thought, I'm pretty sure his numbers on U.S. Gasoline usage are wrong (by about half.) Unusual mistake for someone like Boudreaux.
I wonder if it is just coincidence that this spike in crude oil prices comes so soon after we embarrased our allies in Dubai in the ports deal fiasco.
Interesting thought, Mazzula, but the OPEC countries are still pumping. Some is the increase speculation and some is the competition on the world market. I don't know if Nigeria is back. We will feel the consequences of that rejection for years in unknown ways.
http://alt-e.blogspot.com/
Alternative Energy blog reports FPL is building another solar field. They have a nice map where one can check his state for green efforts. A few places are using garbage gas.
Sharp, thanks a lot for the alternative energy link.
I don't know where the term "illegal immigrant rights" originated, but it is a contradiction in itself. I have to say I find the idea of the one day boycott to show the economic contribution of illegals silly. If someone walks off a job, he is missed until replaced. Given a month or two, things adjust, and given a year or two, its hard to remember him. A one day strike is just another party and attempt to pressure politicians. I refuse to see it as anything else. After all it is the politicians and analysts who are worried.
Sharp,
The boycott will turn out to be another instance of the illegals being exploited. We can count on the 'usual suspects' playing a prominent role in the festivities, just as in the anti-war and anti-globalization demonstrations in the recent past. Any immigrant "message" will be co-opted and diluted by these fringe groups trying to get their 15 minutes of fame. And of course, you will also have the icons of the left like Jesse Jackson and the California state senators trying to prove their "progressive" bona fides.
Sharp, regarding the natural gas issue. Jeff Donn of the AP had an article called "Experts: Natural Gas Econmy Losing Steam" that was printed in the WaPo. Regarding the point of my post, Donn referenced the 1999 report of the National Petroleum Council. The article jogged my memory and I remembered articles from around that time that painted a real rosy picture of lots of NG supplies into the forseeable future at cheap prices.
If your interested, I think you can get to the article by going to the WaPo online, going to the business section, and running a search on natural gas prices. I saw the article last night but it is dated today, 4/30/2006.
Sharp, with regard to your comment about buying tech back in '99-'00, weren't we all. However, I am now looking for an ETF that is more or less a pure play on NG; however, I haven't been able to find one. Most energy ETF's are deversified into the energy sub-sectors. A mutual fund that is heavy in companies that are major plays on NG would probably do. Let me know if you know any. I think NG will be back up around $14-15 soon and the Donn article did little to change my mind.
Q, Boone Pickens is Strong on NG. You might google him. He's always giving interviews with somebody.
Thanks Rufus, I'll Google Boone. Thanks, Q, I read the article. I am still bullish on ng too. The ETF's are heavily weighted by big oil. I invest in the companies as well as Fidelity's Select Natural Gas. I'm not familiar with the current manager. I owned so much energy last year I stayed out of the select funds. Be firm in your convictions; it can be a wild ride. Here is the graph from last year. You can check their holdings at the web site.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
We are still in the shoulder months, but the companies might start moving this month. Looks like last year was 5/15. I read Chris Edmonds, and he always explains the weather and seasons. He thought it would be cheaper this spring, and I have not rushed to add yet.
The FSESX owns the drillers and service companies that have been doing well.
I see the first thing people did when they were unhappy with ng prices was shout conspiracy and sue Exxon.
Sometime the utilities hedge at higher prices than necessary. I remember when Columbia Gas went bankrupt because of it. A few of the independent O&G companies I follow had ng hedged at $11-$15 last winter. I don't know who was buying it.
Thanks, guys. I'll check it out.
FYI - In an unscientific Web survey of 36,000 people, Blogads reported that political blog readers tend to be age 41 to 50, male (72 percent), and earn $60,000 to $90,000 per year. Two in five have college degrees, while just a tad less have graduate degrees... Several major conservative blogs didn't take part in the survey, which was posted on 110 sites, and so the numbers were weighted in favor of Democrats.
- WP
I couldn't resist copying this comment from Cramer's blog. You can watch Meet The Press at NBC and This Week at ABC. Bennett Johnston is pretty good against Schumer.
Please please give me a break...I watched that show and realised again how much of what the experts talk about they don't know...and some generalization about Brasil did it in 3 years gets repeated as fact... I live in Brasil and have property there. They seem to leave out many of the parts of the story on purpose. First, Brasil economy is not as large as the USA, or consumer driven...the population of Brasil doesn't drive ...they live like indentured servants to the very wealthy ..the wealthy and wanna be wealthy middle class...second ...Brasil has replaced the Mata - Atlantica rain forest that used to run the coast from South of Rio to past the Northern city of Forteleza...imagine that a rain forest that at one time was as big as the Amazon..gone...only 10% of it is left ...second...the guys who do that work are paid like slaves and live existences that are tougher thatn tough and the work is the hardest I have ever known about...and third they burn the fields at night creating more greenhouse gases...if they did not harvest this way much of the economic saving would be lost...and finally the most economic car fuel in Brasil is natrual gas...not ethanol or gas which are equal...and also Brasil's goverment owns the major gas producer...do you think if the USA was serious the goverment couldn't just buy reserves and hord like the Chinese are trying to do...
Kudlow -- you keep using this word " boom" . Do you think if you use the word enough it will actually become true. This economy is a "BOOM" if you are Exxon CEO or Pfizer CEO for the average guy who you is legally here but is protesting today .. this economy is not a "boom."
Quote all the damn statistics you can to prove your case. While you do that --im considering taking my families vacation on a Greyhound Bus -- thats a true "BOOM" indicator.
BUT, you might want to steer clear of Bolivia.
Saudi Oil Minister says "bullish" about technology meeting oil demand needs - Reuters
Bolivia's Morales orders military to control natgas fields - Reuters
Rufus, Isn't it Brazil who made the investment in the Bolivian fields?
Chris said this am the rebels sent a car bomb into the refining complex in Nigeria.
I see Bunge and Ergon are building a 60 mil gal ethanol plant in MS.
Don't know, Sharp. They (Brazil) are doing some business with Venezuela. I kind of doubt that Morales would have done that to a Brazilian Co. I'm thinking mostly American companies. But, that's purely guessing.
The "Cotton Ginners" aren't going to like that.
Bolivia was exporting most of it's soy beans to Colombia, but the new Free Trade Agreement between the U.S. and Colombia blew that out of the water. Venezuela promised to buy Bolivia's beans. Right.
Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia
Castro, Chavez, and Morales
What a gaggle
Found one article but have not seen US companies yet.
The measure is expected to affect about 20 foreign oil companies, including Spain's Repsol, Petrobras of Brazil, Britain's BP and British Gas and French group Total.
http://www.petroleumworld.com/storyt06050201.htm
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